How Social Media Predicts Unemployment
Researchers are finding more and more trends amongst social media users that can be used and or interpreted in surprising new ways.
A study undertaken byUN Global Pulseset out to look at “whether and how social media and other online user-generated content could enrich understanding of the effect of changing employment conditions.” The method applied was quite simple – apply qualitative analysis of chatter on social media with national unemployment figures.
Job-related conversations from blogs, forums and news sites in the US and Ireland were used as the focus of the study. In each case, a ‘mood score’ was applied, indicating whether the chatter was happy, depressed anxious, optimistic and so on. Half a million blogs, forums and news sites were used in the study, which covered a period of two years, ensuring that the study had a significant sample size. The mood score was correlated against the unemployment rate, to see if there was a relationship between the two numbers. Analysis was also undertaken to see what sort of coping mechanisms are being used, by looking at the relationship between mood and secondary conversation subjects.
The research found that where there is an increase in the level of hostile and or depressed chatter in the US, an unemployment spike was likely to follow around four months later. They also found that a rise in the jobless rate saw an increase in chatter about housing loss two months later, and a spike in chatter about car repossession about three months later.
That all may sound interesting enough, but is this really just another example of statistical navel-gazing? The researchers at Global Pulse don’t think so. They believe that these data provide a very real opportunity for policy-makers to act quickly. Measures to address economic crises can be reviewed in a timely manner and corrective actions can, in future, be implemented much more quickly. Harnessing the content of social media in this way demonstrates how these sites are more than just idle chatter. Conversations hosted on social sites can show a level of insight that could never previously be captured.
Further studies are likely in the future, particularly as this one didn’t include Twitter or Facebook conversations. In terms of managing your career, this sort of analysis is probably too holistic to benefit individuals, but is an unquestionably valuable tool when it comes to policy and strategy.
