Exploring Occams Razor and the next Generation of Hybrids
"... it is interpreted as saying that simple models are more likely to be correct than complex ones, in other words, that nature prefers simplicity."
The above quote by F. Heylighen from Ask.com pretty well sums up Occam's principal. Essentially, the simpler the execution the more correct the design.
With current high gas prices, much attention is now being paid to hybrids. Toyota and Honda are the current market leaders, as well they should be. Both Toyota and Honda make excellent cars and deserve their dominance in the market. But future hybrids will be very different from what is now on the road. Although current models available are more efficient that conventional automobiles, their reality frequently does not measure up to their hype. And when the additional cost to purchase and maintain these complicated vehicles are factored in, some or all of their advantages are diminished. Most of the major car magazines, when testing the current fleet of hybrids, find they do not achieve their advertised mileage. In fact, in real world use, most rated at 50 mpg plus only achieve mileage in the 38-42 range. The new mileage standards soon to be implemented will produce lower, more realistic ratings. Current hybrid's complication of design limits their potential.
Existing hybrids use more or less the same types of drive trains as conventional cars with the additional burden of a secondary power system. They are constantly switching back and forth from gas to electric power. The next generation of hybrids will eliminate this cumbersome mechanical switching. Using examples of non-passenger vehicles such as diesel electric trains and heavy earth moving equipment will help us get a glimpse of the future. In many instances, these vehicles have dispensed with conventional drive trains. The engine typically powers a generator to create electricity. Instead of transmissions and differentials, electric motors provide the motive force. Essentially, the engine/generator eliminates these expensive, heavy, power robbing components.
The innovation of regenerative power when braking as on current hybrids will continue, but the application would be simpler i.e. the drive motors on the wheels becomes generators when the brakes are applied. The engine's job is purely to generate power without the cumbersome and complicated switching of power sources. Power would still be switched from generator to batteries and vice versa, but it would be an electrical change rather than mechanical.
The model engine for the future hybrid would be a small, ultra clean, direct injection turbo diesel whose only role would be to generate power. This technology already exists. Storage batteries would be used in the same way as now, but advances in battery technology and plug in capability would increase their range and performance. In many applications, future hybrids would primarily be using their stored electric power. One of the main reasons for this would be their greater efficiency.
In conventional vehicles with drive trains, typically 20-25% of energy produced is lost in the transmission of power. The Future Hybrid would have no power robbing transmissions and differentials. There would be no direct mechanical connection from the power source to the drive train. Electric cables would send power to the motors that power the drive wheels. The elimination of drive train components no longer required, with their attendant weight, complexity and redundancy would result in a smaller price premium for the future hybrid. This would increase competition and market penetration resulting in even better hybrids further down the road thus creating the efficient vehicles our energy stared world will increasingly demand.
